Why This Housing Market Won't Crash and Why It Matters

By Ron and Tammy

The Wexler Group is a Chicago-area real estate leader with over 3,100 closed home sales and a reputation for delivering a consistent 5-Star experience by staying ahead of market trends so clients always come out ahead.

Everyone has an opinion about the housing market right now, and plenty of people will tell you to just ask an app. But the real read comes from someone in the trenches every day, watching buyers and sellers move.

After 40 years in Chicagoland, we’re seeing something we’ve never quite seen before, and it’s worth understanding before you decide whether now is your time to move.

The rate lock-in is freezing the market. A lot of people want to move badly, but they’re sitting on a 2%, 3%, or 4% rate and staring at the cost of doubling it for the next house. That hesitation is holding everything in place, and on the buyer side, those same rates mean less house for the money than a few years ago.

This market can’t really crash. The fear of a collapse is overblown because you can’t crash a market with this little inventory. Nationally, we’re short somewhere in the range of 3 to 4 million homes that should have been built, and that shortage is the floor under prices. A slowdown, sure, but not the crash people keep bracing for.

Today’s prices are actually fair. Real estate is local, so a national average means about as much as averaging January weather in San Diego and Chicago. For Chicagoland, we expect roughly up to 4% appreciation this year, right around the long-run trend of about 3%. Homes feel expensive mostly because rates make the payment feel high, but against that trend line, prices are fair.

Your personal economy matters more than the headlines. People move for real reasons, a job, a family change, a new grandchild, not because of something that happened in Washington. Your own situation drives the decision far more than the national economy ever will.

Waiting usually costs more than it saves. We call it the “coulda, woulda, shoulda” market: the buyers who wait five years often look back wishing they’d moved when they could. You marry the house and date the rate, because you can always refinance later, but you can’t get back the years or the appreciation you missed.

You can watch the full video above, or feel free to skip to the topics that interest you most using the timestamps below:

00:00 — Market Overview
00:49 — Rate Lock-In
02:26 — Housing Shortage
03:13 — Why No Crash
06:16 — Pricing And Trend
08:07 — Personal Economy
10:42 — Market Slowdown
11:38 — A Friend’s Move
12:51 — Date The Rate
13:20 — Final Advice

If a move would make a real difference in your life, don’t let interest rates run the decision. Let’s talk through what’s right for you and your family, and wherever your next move takes you, our referral network can connect you with a great agent on the other end.

Call or text us at 708-629-5151, email us at ron@thewexlergroup.com, or visit thewexlergroup.com.